mirror of https://github.com/python/cpython
807 lines
28 KiB
ReStructuredText
807 lines
28 KiB
ReStructuredText
:mod:`statistics` --- Mathematical statistics functions
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=======================================================
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.. module:: statistics
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:synopsis: mathematical statistics functions
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.. moduleauthor:: Steven D'Aprano <steve+python@pearwood.info>
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.. sectionauthor:: Steven D'Aprano <steve+python@pearwood.info>
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.. versionadded:: 3.4
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**Source code:** :source:`Lib/statistics.py`
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.. testsetup:: *
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from statistics import *
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__name__ = '<doctest>'
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--------------
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This module provides functions for calculating mathematical statistics of
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numeric (:class:`Real`-valued) data.
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.. note::
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Unless explicitly noted otherwise, these functions support :class:`int`,
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:class:`float`, :class:`decimal.Decimal` and :class:`fractions.Fraction`.
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Behaviour with other types (whether in the numeric tower or not) is
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currently unsupported. Mixed types are also undefined and
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implementation-dependent. If your input data consists of mixed types,
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you may be able to use :func:`map` to ensure a consistent result, e.g.
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``map(float, input_data)``.
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Averages and measures of central location
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-----------------------------------------
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These functions calculate an average or typical value from a population
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or sample.
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======================= ===============================================================
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:func:`mean` Arithmetic mean ("average") of data.
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:func:`fmean` Fast, floating point arithmetic mean.
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:func:`geometric_mean` Geometric mean of data.
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:func:`harmonic_mean` Harmonic mean of data.
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:func:`median` Median (middle value) of data.
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:func:`median_low` Low median of data.
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:func:`median_high` High median of data.
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:func:`median_grouped` Median, or 50th percentile, of grouped data.
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:func:`mode` Single mode (most common value) of discrete or nominal data.
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:func:`multimode` List of modes (most common values) of discrete or nomimal data.
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:func:`quantiles` Divide data into intervals with equal probability.
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======================= ===============================================================
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Measures of spread
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------------------
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These functions calculate a measure of how much the population or sample
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tends to deviate from the typical or average values.
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======================= =============================================
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:func:`pstdev` Population standard deviation of data.
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:func:`pvariance` Population variance of data.
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:func:`stdev` Sample standard deviation of data.
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:func:`variance` Sample variance of data.
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======================= =============================================
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Function details
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----------------
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Note: The functions do not require the data given to them to be sorted.
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However, for reading convenience, most of the examples show sorted sequences.
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.. function:: mean(data)
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Return the sample arithmetic mean of *data* which can be a sequence or iterator.
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The arithmetic mean is the sum of the data divided by the number of data
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points. It is commonly called "the average", although it is only one of many
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different mathematical averages. It is a measure of the central location of
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the data.
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If *data* is empty, :exc:`StatisticsError` will be raised.
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Some examples of use:
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.. doctest::
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>>> mean([1, 2, 3, 4, 4])
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2.8
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>>> mean([-1.0, 2.5, 3.25, 5.75])
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2.625
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>>> from fractions import Fraction as F
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>>> mean([F(3, 7), F(1, 21), F(5, 3), F(1, 3)])
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Fraction(13, 21)
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>>> from decimal import Decimal as D
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>>> mean([D("0.5"), D("0.75"), D("0.625"), D("0.375")])
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Decimal('0.5625')
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.. note::
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The mean is strongly affected by outliers and is not a robust estimator
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for central location: the mean is not necessarily a typical example of the
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data points. For more robust, although less efficient, measures of
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central location, see :func:`median` and :func:`mode`. (In this case,
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"efficient" refers to statistical efficiency rather than computational
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efficiency.)
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The sample mean gives an unbiased estimate of the true population mean,
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which means that, taken on average over all the possible samples,
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``mean(sample)`` converges on the true mean of the entire population. If
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*data* represents the entire population rather than a sample, then
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``mean(data)`` is equivalent to calculating the true population mean μ.
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.. function:: fmean(data)
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Convert *data* to floats and compute the arithmetic mean.
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This runs faster than the :func:`mean` function and it always returns a
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:class:`float`. The result is highly accurate but not as perfect as
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:func:`mean`. If the input dataset is empty, raises a
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:exc:`StatisticsError`.
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.. doctest::
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>>> fmean([3.5, 4.0, 5.25])
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4.25
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.. versionadded:: 3.8
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.. function:: geometric_mean(data)
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Convert *data* to floats and compute the geometric mean.
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Raises a :exc:`StatisticsError` if the input dataset is empty,
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if it contains a zero, or if it contains a negative value.
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No special efforts are made to achieve exact results.
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(However, this may change in the future.)
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.. doctest::
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>>> round(geometric_mean([54, 24, 36]), 9)
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36.0
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.. versionadded:: 3.8
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.. function:: harmonic_mean(data)
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Return the harmonic mean of *data*, a sequence or iterator of
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real-valued numbers.
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The harmonic mean, sometimes called the subcontrary mean, is the
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reciprocal of the arithmetic :func:`mean` of the reciprocals of the
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data. For example, the harmonic mean of three values *a*, *b* and *c*
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will be equivalent to ``3/(1/a + 1/b + 1/c)``.
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The harmonic mean is a type of average, a measure of the central
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location of the data. It is often appropriate when averaging quantities
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which are rates or ratios, for example speeds. For example:
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Suppose an investor purchases an equal value of shares in each of
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three companies, with P/E (price/earning) ratios of 2.5, 3 and 10.
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What is the average P/E ratio for the investor's portfolio?
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.. doctest::
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>>> harmonic_mean([2.5, 3, 10]) # For an equal investment portfolio.
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3.6
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Using the arithmetic mean would give an average of about 5.167, which
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is too high.
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:exc:`StatisticsError` is raised if *data* is empty, or any element
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is less than zero.
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.. versionadded:: 3.6
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.. function:: median(data)
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Return the median (middle value) of numeric data, using the common "mean of
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middle two" method. If *data* is empty, :exc:`StatisticsError` is raised.
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*data* can be a sequence or iterator.
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The median is a robust measure of central location, and is less affected by
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the presence of outliers in your data. When the number of data points is
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odd, the middle data point is returned:
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.. doctest::
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>>> median([1, 3, 5])
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3
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When the number of data points is even, the median is interpolated by taking
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the average of the two middle values:
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.. doctest::
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>>> median([1, 3, 5, 7])
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4.0
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This is suited for when your data is discrete, and you don't mind that the
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median may not be an actual data point.
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If your data is ordinal (supports order operations) but not numeric (doesn't
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support addition), you should use :func:`median_low` or :func:`median_high`
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instead.
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.. seealso:: :func:`median_low`, :func:`median_high`, :func:`median_grouped`
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.. function:: median_low(data)
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Return the low median of numeric data. If *data* is empty,
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:exc:`StatisticsError` is raised. *data* can be a sequence or iterator.
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The low median is always a member of the data set. When the number of data
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points is odd, the middle value is returned. When it is even, the smaller of
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the two middle values is returned.
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.. doctest::
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>>> median_low([1, 3, 5])
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3
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>>> median_low([1, 3, 5, 7])
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3
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Use the low median when your data are discrete and you prefer the median to
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be an actual data point rather than interpolated.
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.. function:: median_high(data)
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Return the high median of data. If *data* is empty, :exc:`StatisticsError`
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is raised. *data* can be a sequence or iterator.
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The high median is always a member of the data set. When the number of data
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points is odd, the middle value is returned. When it is even, the larger of
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the two middle values is returned.
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.. doctest::
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>>> median_high([1, 3, 5])
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3
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>>> median_high([1, 3, 5, 7])
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5
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Use the high median when your data are discrete and you prefer the median to
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be an actual data point rather than interpolated.
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.. function:: median_grouped(data, interval=1)
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Return the median of grouped continuous data, calculated as the 50th
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percentile, using interpolation. If *data* is empty, :exc:`StatisticsError`
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is raised. *data* can be a sequence or iterator.
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.. doctest::
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>>> median_grouped([52, 52, 53, 54])
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52.5
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In the following example, the data are rounded, so that each value represents
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the midpoint of data classes, e.g. 1 is the midpoint of the class 0.5--1.5, 2
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is the midpoint of 1.5--2.5, 3 is the midpoint of 2.5--3.5, etc. With the data
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given, the middle value falls somewhere in the class 3.5--4.5, and
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interpolation is used to estimate it:
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.. doctest::
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>>> median_grouped([1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5])
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3.7
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Optional argument *interval* represents the class interval, and defaults
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to 1. Changing the class interval naturally will change the interpolation:
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.. doctest::
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>>> median_grouped([1, 3, 3, 5, 7], interval=1)
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3.25
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>>> median_grouped([1, 3, 3, 5, 7], interval=2)
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3.5
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This function does not check whether the data points are at least
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*interval* apart.
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.. impl-detail::
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Under some circumstances, :func:`median_grouped` may coerce data points to
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floats. This behaviour is likely to change in the future.
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.. seealso::
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* "Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences", Frederick J Gravetter and
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Larry B Wallnau (8th Edition).
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* The `SSMEDIAN
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<https://help.gnome.org/users/gnumeric/stable/gnumeric.html#gnumeric-function-SSMEDIAN>`_
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function in the Gnome Gnumeric spreadsheet, including `this discussion
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<https://mail.gnome.org/archives/gnumeric-list/2011-April/msg00018.html>`_.
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.. function:: mode(data)
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Return the single most common data point from discrete or nominal *data*.
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The mode (when it exists) is the most typical value and serves as a
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measure of central location.
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If there are multiple modes, returns the first one encountered in the *data*.
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If the smallest or largest of multiple modes is desired instead, use
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``min(multimode(data))`` or ``max(multimode(data))``. If the input *data* is
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empty, :exc:`StatisticsError` is raised.
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``mode`` assumes discrete data, and returns a single value. This is the
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standard treatment of the mode as commonly taught in schools:
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.. doctest::
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>>> mode([1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4])
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3
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The mode is unique in that it is the only statistic which also applies
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to nominal (non-numeric) data:
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.. doctest::
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>>> mode(["red", "blue", "blue", "red", "green", "red", "red"])
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'red'
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.. versionchanged:: 3.8
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Now handles multimodal datasets by returning the first mode encountered.
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Formerly, it raised :exc:`StatisticsError` when more than one mode was
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found.
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.. function:: multimode(data)
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Return a list of the most frequently occurring values in the order they
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were first encountered in the *data*. Will return more than one result if
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there are multiple modes or an empty list if the *data* is empty:
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.. doctest::
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>>> multimode('aabbbbccddddeeffffgg')
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['b', 'd', 'f']
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>>> multimode('')
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[]
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.. versionadded:: 3.8
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.. function:: pstdev(data, mu=None)
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Return the population standard deviation (the square root of the population
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variance). See :func:`pvariance` for arguments and other details.
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.. doctest::
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>>> pstdev([1.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.75, 3.25, 4.75])
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0.986893273527251
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.. function:: pvariance(data, mu=None)
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Return the population variance of *data*, a non-empty iterable of real-valued
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numbers. Variance, or second moment about the mean, is a measure of the
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variability (spread or dispersion) of data. A large variance indicates that
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the data is spread out; a small variance indicates it is clustered closely
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around the mean.
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If the optional second argument *mu* is given, it should be the mean of
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*data*. If it is missing or ``None`` (the default), the mean is
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automatically calculated.
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Use this function to calculate the variance from the entire population. To
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estimate the variance from a sample, the :func:`variance` function is usually
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a better choice.
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Raises :exc:`StatisticsError` if *data* is empty.
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Examples:
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.. doctest::
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>>> data = [0.0, 0.25, 0.25, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.75, 3.25]
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>>> pvariance(data)
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1.25
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If you have already calculated the mean of your data, you can pass it as the
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optional second argument *mu* to avoid recalculation:
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.. doctest::
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>>> mu = mean(data)
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>>> pvariance(data, mu)
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1.25
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This function does not attempt to verify that you have passed the actual mean
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as *mu*. Using arbitrary values for *mu* may lead to invalid or impossible
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results.
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Decimals and Fractions are supported:
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.. doctest::
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>>> from decimal import Decimal as D
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>>> pvariance([D("27.5"), D("30.25"), D("30.25"), D("34.5"), D("41.75")])
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Decimal('24.815')
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>>> from fractions import Fraction as F
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>>> pvariance([F(1, 4), F(5, 4), F(1, 2)])
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Fraction(13, 72)
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.. note::
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When called with the entire population, this gives the population variance
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σ². When called on a sample instead, this is the biased sample variance
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s², also known as variance with N degrees of freedom.
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If you somehow know the true population mean μ, you may use this function
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to calculate the variance of a sample, giving the known population mean as
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the second argument. Provided the data points are representative
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(e.g. independent and identically distributed), the result will be an
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unbiased estimate of the population variance.
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.. function:: stdev(data, xbar=None)
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Return the sample standard deviation (the square root of the sample
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variance). See :func:`variance` for arguments and other details.
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.. doctest::
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>>> stdev([1.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.75, 3.25, 4.75])
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1.0810874155219827
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.. function:: variance(data, xbar=None)
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Return the sample variance of *data*, an iterable of at least two real-valued
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numbers. Variance, or second moment about the mean, is a measure of the
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variability (spread or dispersion) of data. A large variance indicates that
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the data is spread out; a small variance indicates it is clustered closely
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around the mean.
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If the optional second argument *xbar* is given, it should be the mean of
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*data*. If it is missing or ``None`` (the default), the mean is
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automatically calculated.
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Use this function when your data is a sample from a population. To calculate
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the variance from the entire population, see :func:`pvariance`.
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Raises :exc:`StatisticsError` if *data* has fewer than two values.
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Examples:
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.. doctest::
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>>> data = [2.75, 1.75, 1.25, 0.25, 0.5, 1.25, 3.5]
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>>> variance(data)
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1.3720238095238095
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If you have already calculated the mean of your data, you can pass it as the
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optional second argument *xbar* to avoid recalculation:
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.. doctest::
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>>> m = mean(data)
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>>> variance(data, m)
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1.3720238095238095
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This function does not attempt to verify that you have passed the actual mean
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as *xbar*. Using arbitrary values for *xbar* can lead to invalid or
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impossible results.
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Decimal and Fraction values are supported:
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.. doctest::
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>>> from decimal import Decimal as D
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>>> variance([D("27.5"), D("30.25"), D("30.25"), D("34.5"), D("41.75")])
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Decimal('31.01875')
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>>> from fractions import Fraction as F
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>>> variance([F(1, 6), F(1, 2), F(5, 3)])
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Fraction(67, 108)
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.. note::
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This is the sample variance s² with Bessel's correction, also known as
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variance with N-1 degrees of freedom. Provided that the data points are
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representative (e.g. independent and identically distributed), the result
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should be an unbiased estimate of the true population variance.
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If you somehow know the actual population mean μ you should pass it to the
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:func:`pvariance` function as the *mu* parameter to get the variance of a
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sample.
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.. function:: quantiles(dist, *, n=4, method='exclusive')
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Divide *dist* into *n* continuous intervals with equal probability.
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Returns a list of ``n - 1`` cut points separating the intervals.
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Set *n* to 4 for quartiles (the default). Set *n* to 10 for deciles. Set
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*n* to 100 for percentiles which gives the 99 cuts points that separate
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*dist* in to 100 equal sized groups. Raises :exc:`StatisticsError` if *n*
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is not least 1.
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The *dist* can be any iterable containing sample data or it can be an
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instance of a class that defines an :meth:`~inv_cdf` method. For meaningful
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results, the number of data points in *dist* should be larger than *n*.
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Raises :exc:`StatisticsError` if there are not at least two data points.
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For sample data, the cut points are linearly interpolated from the
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two nearest data points. For example, if a cut point falls one-third
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of the distance between two sample values, ``100`` and ``112``, the
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cut-point will evaluate to ``104``.
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The *method* for computing quantiles can be varied depending on
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whether the data in *dist* includes or excludes the lowest and
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highest possible values from the population.
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The default *method* is "exclusive" and is used for data sampled from
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a population that can have more extreme values than found in the
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samples. The portion of the population falling below the *i-th* of
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*m* sorted data points is computed as ``i / (m + 1)``. Given nine
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sample values, the method sorts them and assigns the following
|
|
percentiles: 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%.
|
|
|
|
Setting the *method* to "inclusive" is used for describing population
|
|
data or for samples that are known to include the most extreme values
|
|
from the population. The minimum value in *dist* is treated as the 0th
|
|
percentile and the maximum value is treated as the 100th percentile.
|
|
The portion of the population falling below the *i-th* of *m* sorted
|
|
data points is computed as ``(i - 1) / (m - 1)``. Given 11 sample
|
|
values, the method sorts them and assigns the following percentiles:
|
|
0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.
|
|
|
|
If *dist* is an instance of a class that defines an
|
|
:meth:`~inv_cdf` method, setting *method* has no effect.
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
# Decile cut points for empirically sampled data
|
|
>>> data = [105, 129, 87, 86, 111, 111, 89, 81, 108, 92, 110,
|
|
... 100, 75, 105, 103, 109, 76, 119, 99, 91, 103, 129,
|
|
... 106, 101, 84, 111, 74, 87, 86, 103, 103, 106, 86,
|
|
... 111, 75, 87, 102, 121, 111, 88, 89, 101, 106, 95,
|
|
... 103, 107, 101, 81, 109, 104]
|
|
>>> [round(q, 1) for q in quantiles(data, n=10)]
|
|
[81.0, 86.2, 89.0, 99.4, 102.5, 103.6, 106.0, 109.8, 111.0]
|
|
|
|
>>> # Quartile cut points for the standard normal distribution
|
|
>>> Z = NormalDist()
|
|
>>> [round(q, 4) for q in quantiles(Z, n=4)]
|
|
[-0.6745, 0.0, 0.6745]
|
|
|
|
.. versionadded:: 3.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exceptions
|
|
----------
|
|
|
|
A single exception is defined:
|
|
|
|
.. exception:: StatisticsError
|
|
|
|
Subclass of :exc:`ValueError` for statistics-related exceptions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
:class:`NormalDist` objects
|
|
---------------------------
|
|
|
|
:class:`NormalDist` is a tool for creating and manipulating normal
|
|
distributions of a `random variable
|
|
<http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/ranvar.htm>`_. It is a
|
|
composite class that treats the mean and standard deviation of data
|
|
measurements as a single entity.
|
|
|
|
Normal distributions arise from the `Central Limit Theorem
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem>`_ and have a wide range
|
|
of applications in statistics.
|
|
|
|
.. class:: NormalDist(mu=0.0, sigma=1.0)
|
|
|
|
Returns a new *NormalDist* object where *mu* represents the `arithmetic
|
|
mean <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_mean>`_ and *sigma*
|
|
represents the `standard deviation
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation>`_.
|
|
|
|
If *sigma* is negative, raises :exc:`StatisticsError`.
|
|
|
|
.. attribute:: mean
|
|
|
|
A read-only property for the `arithmetic mean
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_mean>`_ of a normal
|
|
distribution.
|
|
|
|
.. attribute:: stdev
|
|
|
|
A read-only property for the `standard deviation
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation>`_ of a normal
|
|
distribution.
|
|
|
|
.. attribute:: variance
|
|
|
|
A read-only property for the `variance
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance>`_ of a normal
|
|
distribution. Equal to the square of the standard deviation.
|
|
|
|
.. classmethod:: NormalDist.from_samples(data)
|
|
|
|
Makes a normal distribution instance computed from sample data. The
|
|
*data* can be any :term:`iterable` and should consist of values that
|
|
can be converted to type :class:`float`.
|
|
|
|
If *data* does not contain at least two elements, raises
|
|
:exc:`StatisticsError` because it takes at least one point to estimate
|
|
a central value and at least two points to estimate dispersion.
|
|
|
|
.. method:: NormalDist.samples(n, *, seed=None)
|
|
|
|
Generates *n* random samples for a given mean and standard deviation.
|
|
Returns a :class:`list` of :class:`float` values.
|
|
|
|
If *seed* is given, creates a new instance of the underlying random
|
|
number generator. This is useful for creating reproducible results,
|
|
even in a multi-threading context.
|
|
|
|
.. method:: NormalDist.pdf(x)
|
|
|
|
Using a `probability density function (pdf)
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_density_function>`_,
|
|
compute the relative likelihood that a random variable *X* will be near
|
|
the given value *x*. Mathematically, it is the ratio ``P(x <= X <
|
|
x+dx) / dx``.
|
|
|
|
The relative likelihood is computed as the probability of a sample
|
|
occurring in a narrow range divided by the width of the range (hence
|
|
the word "density"). Since the likelihood is relative to other points,
|
|
its value can be greater than `1.0`.
|
|
|
|
.. method:: NormalDist.cdf(x)
|
|
|
|
Using a `cumulative distribution function (cdf)
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function>`_,
|
|
compute the probability that a random variable *X* will be less than or
|
|
equal to *x*. Mathematically, it is written ``P(X <= x)``.
|
|
|
|
.. method:: NormalDist.inv_cdf(p)
|
|
|
|
Compute the inverse cumulative distribution function, also known as the
|
|
`quantile function <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile_function>`_
|
|
or the `percent-point
|
|
<https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/inverse-distribution-function/>`_
|
|
function. Mathematically, it is written ``x : P(X <= x) = p``.
|
|
|
|
Finds the value *x* of the random variable *X* such that the
|
|
probability of the variable being less than or equal to that value
|
|
equals the given probability *p*.
|
|
|
|
.. method:: NormalDist.overlap(other)
|
|
|
|
Returns a value between 0.0 and 1.0 giving the overlapping area for
|
|
the two probability density functions.
|
|
|
|
Instances of :class:`NormalDist` support addition, subtraction,
|
|
multiplication and division by a constant. These operations
|
|
are used for translation and scaling. For example:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> temperature_february = NormalDist(5, 2.5) # Celsius
|
|
>>> temperature_february * (9/5) + 32 # Fahrenheit
|
|
NormalDist(mu=41.0, sigma=4.5)
|
|
|
|
Dividing a constant by an instance of :class:`NormalDist` is not supported
|
|
because the result wouldn't be normally distributed.
|
|
|
|
Since normal distributions arise from additive effects of independent
|
|
variables, it is possible to `add and subtract two independent normally
|
|
distributed random variables
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables>`_
|
|
represented as instances of :class:`NormalDist`. For example:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> birth_weights = NormalDist.from_samples([2.5, 3.1, 2.1, 2.4, 2.7, 3.5])
|
|
>>> drug_effects = NormalDist(0.4, 0.15)
|
|
>>> combined = birth_weights + drug_effects
|
|
>>> round(combined.mean, 1)
|
|
3.1
|
|
>>> round(combined.stdev, 1)
|
|
0.5
|
|
|
|
.. versionadded:: 3.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
:class:`NormalDist` Examples and Recipes
|
|
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
|
|
|
|
:class:`NormalDist` readily solves classic probability problems.
|
|
|
|
For example, given `historical data for SAT exams
|
|
<https://blog.prepscholar.com/sat-standard-deviation>`_ showing that scores
|
|
are normally distributed with a mean of 1060 and a standard deviation of 192,
|
|
determine the percentage of students with test scores between 1100 and
|
|
1200, after rounding to the nearest whole number:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> sat = NormalDist(1060, 195)
|
|
>>> fraction = sat.cdf(1200 + 0.5) - sat.cdf(1100 - 0.5)
|
|
>>> round(fraction * 100.0, 1)
|
|
18.4
|
|
|
|
Find the `quartiles <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartile>`_ and `deciles
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decile>`_ for the SAT scores:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> [round(sat.inv_cdf(p)) for p in (0.25, 0.50, 0.75)]
|
|
[928, 1060, 1192]
|
|
>>> [round(sat.inv_cdf(p / 10)) for p in range(1, 10)]
|
|
[810, 896, 958, 1011, 1060, 1109, 1162, 1224, 1310]
|
|
|
|
To estimate the distribution for a model than isn't easy to solve
|
|
analytically, :class:`NormalDist` can generate input samples for a `Monte
|
|
Carlo simulation <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method>`_:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> def model(x, y, z):
|
|
... return (3*x + 7*x*y - 5*y) / (11 * z)
|
|
...
|
|
>>> n = 100_000
|
|
>>> seed = 86753099035768
|
|
>>> X = NormalDist(10, 2.5).samples(n, seed=seed)
|
|
>>> Y = NormalDist(15, 1.75).samples(n, seed=seed)
|
|
>>> Z = NormalDist(50, 1.25).samples(n, seed=seed)
|
|
>>> NormalDist.from_samples(map(model, X, Y, Z)) # doctest: +SKIP
|
|
NormalDist(mu=1.8661894803304777, sigma=0.65238717376862)
|
|
|
|
Normal distributions commonly arise in machine learning problems.
|
|
|
|
Wikipedia has a `nice example of a Naive Bayesian Classifier
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naive_Bayes_classifier#Sex_classification>`_.
|
|
The challenge is to predict a person's gender from measurements of normally
|
|
distributed features including height, weight, and foot size.
|
|
|
|
We're given a training dataset with measurements for eight people. The
|
|
measurements are assumed to be normally distributed, so we summarize the data
|
|
with :class:`NormalDist`:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> height_male = NormalDist.from_samples([6, 5.92, 5.58, 5.92])
|
|
>>> height_female = NormalDist.from_samples([5, 5.5, 5.42, 5.75])
|
|
>>> weight_male = NormalDist.from_samples([180, 190, 170, 165])
|
|
>>> weight_female = NormalDist.from_samples([100, 150, 130, 150])
|
|
>>> foot_size_male = NormalDist.from_samples([12, 11, 12, 10])
|
|
>>> foot_size_female = NormalDist.from_samples([6, 8, 7, 9])
|
|
|
|
Next, we encounter a new person whose feature measurements are known but whose
|
|
gender is unknown:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> ht = 6.0 # height
|
|
>>> wt = 130 # weight
|
|
>>> fs = 8 # foot size
|
|
|
|
Starting with a 50% `prior probability
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability>`_ of being male or female,
|
|
we compute the posterior as the prior times the product of likelihoods for the
|
|
feature measurements given the gender:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> prior_male = 0.5
|
|
>>> prior_female = 0.5
|
|
>>> posterior_male = (prior_male * height_male.pdf(ht) *
|
|
... weight_male.pdf(wt) * foot_size_male.pdf(fs))
|
|
|
|
>>> posterior_female = (prior_female * height_female.pdf(ht) *
|
|
... weight_female.pdf(wt) * foot_size_female.pdf(fs))
|
|
|
|
The final prediction goes to the largest posterior. This is known as the
|
|
`maximum a posteriori
|
|
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_a_posteriori_estimation>`_ or MAP:
|
|
|
|
.. doctest::
|
|
|
|
>>> 'male' if posterior_male > posterior_female else 'female'
|
|
'female'
|
|
|
|
|
|
..
|
|
# This modelines must appear within the last ten lines of the file.
|
|
kate: indent-width 3; remove-trailing-space on; replace-tabs on; encoding utf-8;
|